Hurricane Center tracking tropical wave out in Atlantic
Published: October 11, 2012
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ST. CROIX - Forecasters are continuing to keep an eye on a tropical wave out in the Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center has given a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.
"They increased the chance of development to 40 percent," Jose Alamo, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Juan, said of the Hurricane Center's predictions for the weather system.
A good deal of uncertainty still remained about the actual development of the wave, which likely will affect the territory during the weekend, Alamo said.
At press time, the tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, was located about 475 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
Alamo said that current computer guidance indicates that the system could pass by to the northwest of the territory.
Wednesday night, he said the deepest convection is located to the east of the center. That means that if the system passed to the northwest, the territory would be less affected.
"It looks like the bulk of the moisture and convection will be to the east, if it moves as the numerical models seem to agree on," he said.
The territory likely will start to see increasing moisture on Friday night, then lingering moisture Saturday and Sunday, Alamo said. However, it was too early Wednesday night to determine whether there would be significant, widespread rainfall associated with the system.
"There's still a lot of uncertainty," Alamo said.
Residents were encouraged to monitor the tropical wave's progress.