Patriots won't be surprised by Giants this time around

Before I get into my Super Bowl pick, let me just give a brief reminder about my picks for the NFL's postseason awards, which will be handed out on Saturday night:

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, Saints

Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, Lions

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers

Defensive Player of Year: Jared Allen, Vikings

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aldon Smith, 49ers

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, 49ers

These picks are, of course, based on the premise that the voting for these awards were completed at the end of the regular season. If the postseason was part of the voting process, these would go a lot differently.

But on to the matter at hand. The Patriots and Giants are matching up in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. Plus, they've matched up in the regular season of both of those Super Bowl matchups, with split results.

In their last two meetings - Super Bowl XLII and in Week 9 of this season, the Giants and Eli Manning were able to pull off last-minute comeback drives to get the victory while being more physical at the line of scrimmage than the Patriots. But just like the regular season numbers of these two squads don't equate to their postseason performance, I similarly don't think the last two meetings of these teams equate to the outcome of this game.

The Patriots defense, which for the last few seasons has been referred to as soft, stepped up in the last few games of the postseason, shutting down the powerful running attacks of the Broncos and Ravens and making their offenses one-dimensional. In my opinion, unlike their Week 9 matchup in which they gave up over 70 yards to Brandon Jacobs and over 100 yards total rushing to the Giants, I see the now tougher Pats defense taking the Giants running game away and making them depend solely on Manning, and that offensive formula has proven to be a bad one for the Giants in recent memory.

By the same token, look for Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis to play a bigger part in the game than in the previous matchups. Green-Ellis averaged more than four yards a carry in the Week 9 matchup, and he is probably the one weapon on the Patriots that is near impossible to game plan for because of how much the Pats throw the ball.

Another way I expect the Pats to improve is in the turnover battle. In their 3-point loss to the Giants in Week 9, the Patriots uncharacteristically committed four turnovers - three of them by Tom Brady. Can the Giants expect that to happen again? I don't think so.

Bottom line, there's a reason why the Pats have been favored in all three of the previous meetings between these two clubs, including Super Bowl XLII. If the Pats offense is able to adjust to the Giants pass rush and avoid turnovers, and the Pats defense can shut down the Giants running attack and take away Victor Cruz in the passing game, they should be able to pull out a relatively close victory.

Pick: Patriots

- Last Week: 1-1; Postseason: 5-5; Regular Season: 164-89

- Kemp Callwood is The Daily News Sports Editor. His column appears throughout the NFL season.

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